AfD Wins Near Majority in Saxony-Anhalt Election

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt’s September 6 state election, its highest-ever result in a regional poll. Though the party failed to secure a majority, the outcome marked its closest approach yet to forming a government in Germany. Meanwhile, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered a historic collapse, losing its long-standing dominance in the region. The election’s outcome carries major implications for German politics and serves as a cautionary signal for far-right movements across Europe ahead of next year’s national elections.

The AfD’s performance demonstrates a significant shift in voter behavior. The party more than doubled its share from 2021, reaching 43.8% amid a record turnout of 77.8%, up from 60.3% five years earlier. This surge contradicts the assumption that high voter participation benefits centrist parties. Instead, former abstainers returned to the polls—not to support the political establishment, but to reject it. This trend could spread across Europe, where anti-establishment sentiment continues to grow.

For Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, the AfD’s result presents both an opportunity and a challenge. The party’s strong showing suggests that widespread dissatisfaction with mainstream politics may extend to more extreme alternatives. However, Le Pen’s own polling, currently placing her 13 to 15 points ahead of rivals in presidential surveys, has historically failed to translate into electoral victories. Unlike the AfD, Le Pen has avoided public discussion of Germany’s outcome, leaving her ally Jean-Philippe Tanguy to criticize voters for backing parties that “minimize” Germany’s Nazi past. Within her own party, strategists remain divided over whether the AfD’s gains will help or hinder her campaign.

France’s Far-Right Faces Mixed Signals

The AfD’s success has also raised concerns among French moderates, who may interpret it as evidence that far-right extremism is gaining broader traction.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s nationalist coalition faces a different dynamic. While her government remains popular, it has created political space to its right. The National Future (NF) party, founded in February by former general Roberto Vannacci, now polls at nearly 8%, a figure higher than both of Meloni’s junior coalition partners. Unlike previous far-right groups, NF sits comfortably above Italy’s 3% parliamentary threshold, attracting support from voters who previously abstained due to distrust of established parties.

Vannacci’s appeal stems from his outsider status and hardline rhetoric, including references to fascist-era policies. This approach solidifies his base but limits his ability to surpass Meloni’s Brothers of Italy as the dominant right-wing force. Italy’s electoral reform, requiring pre-election coalition agreements, will further shape NF’s influence. If Meloni needs NF to secure a parliamentary majority, Vannacci would enter government not as an insurgent leader but as the most radical member of a broader right-wing alliance.

Italy’s New Radical Challenge to Meloni’s Coalition

The AfD’s breakthrough does not guarantee identical outcomes elsewhere, but the underlying voter anger is not limited to eastern Germany. Mainstream parties across Europe cannot assume the backlash will follow a predictable pattern. The sentiment will evolve based on local political contexts, historical factors, and electoral rules, making the lessons from Saxony-Anhalt more complex than a simple shift toward the far right.

Italy’s economic struggles have intensified voter dissatisfaction. Repeated inflation shocks have eroded real incomes, yet established opposition parties have struggled to convert this frustration into electoral gains, having held office at various points over the past decade. Roberto Vannacci’s National Future capitalizes on this dissatisfaction by positioning itself as a fresh alternative, untouched by past governance failures. More than a third of its supporters admitted they abstained from the 2024 European elections, indicating the party is mobilizing previously disengaged voters.

Beyond Italy, the rise in anti-establishment sentiment echoes past periods when nationalist movements on both sides of the Rhine contributed to major crises since 1870. Current voter anger is not confined to Germany’s eastern states. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has not publicly addressed the German result, leaving her aide to condemn voters who “minimize” Germany’s Nazi past. Party insiders remain divided over whether the AfD’s gains will benefit or harm Le Pen’s electoral prospects.