Von der Leyen addresses European crisis cycle
Ursula von der Leyen prepares to deliver her annual State of the Union address on Sept. 16, a moment of political stocktaking that arrives at a precarious juncture for the European Union. The European Commission president faces a backdrop of mounting geopolitical pressures and a shifting internal balance of power. Over the next 18 months, key member states including Poland, Spain, Italy, and France will head to the polls. By the time those elections conclude, the political environment within the bloc could look radically different. If right-leaning parties continue to gain ground, the agenda will shift, adding significant weight to what von der Leyen says to Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) during her address.
Combustible issues such as banning social media for minors and managing migration will likely dominate the conversation. The diplomatic friction between Spain and Italy, triggered by the irregular crossing of more than 70,000 migrants from Morocco to Ceuta in late July, has made the migration file even more intractable. Luca Barana, a senior fellow at the Rome-based Institute for International Affairs, noted that this situation complicates the Commission president’s task.
She cannot risk antagonizing key national governments by taking sides. Barana expects von der Leyen to present the Pact on Migration and Asylum, which entered into force in June, as a success. She will likely stress the need to approve the proposed Return Regulation. This rule would expand forced returns and push ahead with so-called return hubs in non-EU countries.
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The Competitiveness Gap and Regulatory Tension
Migration is only one of the challenges competing for attention. The EU’s next long-term budget, mounting security threats, and fierce competition from China present major political tests. The bloc faces a stubborn gap in economic growth and productivity compared with the United States and China. Progress on closing this gap has been modest. Just 16% of the recommendations in former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s landmark report on European competitiveness have been fully implemented. The figure rises to just over 40% if accounting for partial progress. Judith Arnal, a senior fellow at the Elcano Royal Institute, described the record as one of selective delivery under pressure.
It is not the systematic transformation the report called for. For Arnal, this year’s address should offer more than another round of announcements. The competitiveness agenda now suffers from initiative inflation. What it needs is a short list of deliverables with dates. She points to three priorities: completing the Savings and Investments Union, taking decisive steps toward a 28th regime for cross-border businesses, and pressing member states to pursue reforms at home. Arnal expects von der Leyen to make a strong call on national capitals to adopt national reforms. The competitiveness agenda is not only European, it is also national, and this is too often forgotten.
At the heart of the drive to boost competitiveness is the effort to cut red tape. The Commission has launched a series of omnibus packages aimed at reducing administrative burdens across sustainability, agriculture, the single market, digital policy, taxation, and energy. Businesses have broadly welcomed the goal. However, some companies and experts are increasingly questioning whether the execution is consistent with the Commission’s own Better Regulation principles.
Arnal noted that many companies have already complied with the existing rules. Unless the framework moves to something clearly better, reopening rules can generate additional compliance costs rather than relief. Alberto Alemanno, a professor of law at HEC Paris and founder of The Good Lobby, argued that the deregulation push is emblematic of the growing presidentialization of the Commission.
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Omnibus regulation and other procedural shortcuts have been mainstreamed as the default mode of lawmaking. He noted that eleven omnibus packages have been tabled so far, virtually all without a full impact assessment or genuine public consultation. The result is a new approach to EU rulemaking in which existing frameworks are increasingly dismantled and protections relaxed in the name of competitiveness. “When industry associations start voicing the same complaint as civil society organizations about legal uncertainty and being consulted after the fact, it becomes a bipartisan conclusion,” he said. “The consultative and deliberative space has been narrowed for everyone.”
Defense and Security
Defense and security are probably the areas in which the Commission will have the easiest time showcasing its record. The harder part comes after SOTEU: securing the bloc’s own resources needed to finance those priorities and bridging the divide between capitals pushing for a more ambitious budget and the so-called frugal states seeking to keep spending down. The national elections scheduled over the next year could make that task harder still. They could also revive the EU’s traditional guns-versus-butter debate, pitting established priorities such as agriculture and regional cohesion against emerging ones like security and defense.
Handling a Shifting Global Order
In her 2025 address, von der Leyen declared Europe’s independence moment. One year on, it may be harder to sell Europeans the same promise. Europe remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels. It relies on restricted Chinese raw materials for its digital and green transitions. It depends on U.S. artificial intelligence frontier models and still l
