CREA Lowers 2026 Home Sales, Prices
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its expectations for home sales and prices in 2026 and 2027 downward, blaming persistent mortgage rate increases and economic instability. The adjustment follows a sharp rise in fixed mortgage rates since early September, prompted by climbing oil prices and a more assertive approach from the Bank of Canada. In 2025, tariff fluctuations created additional uncertainty for prospective buyers, while this year’s volatility stems from global energy crisis inflation risks and their ripple effects on borrowing costs.
Fixed mortgage rates initially spiked in spring after the Iran conflict began, then moderated during summer before climbing again in late summer. Disruptions in oil supplies and the Bank of Canada’s tighter monetary policy have since driven rates higher, with financial markets now anticipating roughly 100 basis points in rate increases by the same period next year. These shifts have already led to weaker sales activity in September, and CREA now estimates that 444,530 homes will change hands in 2026—a decline of 5.2% from the previous year. The downward revision reflects lower expected activity in the final four months of the year, particularly as higher fixed mortgage rates and lingering uncertainty around variable rate adjustments have dampened buyer confidence.
This downward revision applies across all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador, where market activity remains robust. The national average home price is now projected to increase by just 0.2%, reaching $681,681 in 2026—slightly lower than CREA’s forecast from July. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to see price reductions of 0.8% and 3%, respectively, while Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.7%) and Saskatchewan (+5%) will experience modest gains. Outside Ontario and B.C., average price growth is expected to remain in the low-to-mid single digits, reflecting regional disparities where resource-driven economies continue to outperform.
Looking ahead to 2027, CREA anticipates a 4.4% recovery in sales, with 464,235 transactions expected, assuming slower economic growth but greater stability in borrowing costs. The national average price is forecast to rise by 1.2% to $689,909, with Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan continuing to lead price increases, though at a reduced pace compared to recent years. This forecast marks the sixth and seventh consecutive years that the national average home price has hovered close to the $700,000 mark, indicating persistent supply constraints in key markets.
CREA will issue an updated forecast in mid-January 2027, with a full release schedule to be published in December. The organization includes over 155,000 REALTORS® nationwide, serving as a voice for property owners, buyers, and sellers. Each quarter, CREA updates its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations.
For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: [email protected]
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